A yellow glow is likely to stand out amid grey geopolitical clouds in 2023, with gold price projected to touch Rs 60,000 per 10 grams in the Indian market as more investors veer towards safe-haven assets. In a year where volatility was more a norm than an exception, gold prices in the international market oscillated from a peak of $2,070 per ounce in March to a low of $1,616 per ounce in November and is steadily recovering since then, according to market experts. At the beginning of 2022, gold prices were around $1,800 an ounce.
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Regaining the lost sheen, sales of gold jewellery and coins are set to touch pre-COVID levels in volume terms on the auspicious Dhanteras as easing pandemic concerns and pent up demand saw consumers flocking to stores to buy the precious metal. Increased footfall at stores and brisk sales online as well as relatively softer gold prices compared to record Rs 57,000 per 10 grams level in August spurred increased buying, especially light weight offerings, on Tuesday. Dhanteras is considered to be auspicious for buying precious metals and other valuable items.
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With Indian jewellery market already on the robust recovery path, the jewellers are expecting strong Diwali sales in the Dhanteras as the festive mood remains high with low Covid third wave possibility and softer gold price this season. The industry expects the trends in 2021 will be able to reach pre-covid level sales of 2019 on the back of gold price hovering at Rs 46,000-47,000 per 22 carat 10 grams gold nearly 5 per cent lower than 2020, and jump in number of weddings, a senior official of an industry body said. "Since Navratri market is showing demand. It will continue on Dhanteras also.
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A strong appetite for gold on Friday's Dhanteras is expected this year due to auspicious reasons and geopolitical concerns, continuing the 2022 trend driven by pent-up COVID demand. Compared to last year's Dhanteras, gold prices have jumped 22 per cent and silver prices by 21 per cent, respectively. "Gold and silver are good for portfolio diversification, especially in times of geopolitical turbulence.
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The country's exports for the first time crossed the $400 billion mark in a fiscal on healthy performance by sectors such as petroleum products, engineering, gems and jewellery, and chemicals, according to the commerce ministry's data released on Wednesday. The merchandise exports rose by by 37 per cent to $400.8 billion in 2021-22 until March 21 against $292 billion in 2020-21. Previously, the outbound shipments had touched a record of $330.07 billion in 2018-19.
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Contracting for the third month in a row, India's exports declined by 8.8 per cent to $33.88 billion in February due to slowdown in global demand, even as the trade deficit touched about a year low of $17.43 billion during the month, according to official data released on Wednesday. Imports also declined by 8.21 per cent to $51.31 billion as against $55.9 billion recorded in the corresponding month last year. Cumulatively, however during April-February this fiscal, the country's overall merchandise exports rose by 7.5 per cent to $405.94 billion.
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In September last year, the exports stood at $3.5 billion, according to the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council.
India, the world's largest diamond cutting and polishing centre, exported gems and jewellery worth $9.1 billion in the past year ended March 31, up 21 per cent from the previous year, a leading trade body said on Thursday.
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Exports contracted by 2.6 per cent to $34.47 billion in September even as the country's merchandise trade deficit narrows to $19.37 billion during the month under review, according to the government data released on Friday. Easing commodity prices helped in cutting down the country's import bill by 15 per cent to $53.84 billion in September, the 10th consecutive month of decline. During April-September this fiscal, exports contracted by 8.77 per cent to $211.4 billion.
India's exports in January dipped by 6.58 per cent to $32.91 billion, as against $35.23 billion in the same month last year, according to the data released by the commerce ministry on Wednesday. Trade deficit in January stood at $17.75 billion.
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India's exports are unlikely to get an immediate boost from a depreciating rupee, which touched an all-time low on Monday, driven by rising commodity prices. The rupee fell to 76.97 against the dollar earlier in the day, settling 1.05 per cent weaker than the previous close. Oil prices soared to their highest since 2008 on Monday at $139 per barrel, after the US and European allies explored a Russian oil import ban, while delays in the potential return of Iranian crude oil to global markets increased supply fears.
The US is the largest consumer of gems and jewellery in the world contributing nearly 40 per cent of global production. If India can tap the opportunity, its overall exports to the US could jump by 10 per cent to $ 11 billion this year.
In India, the gold prices might come down to Rs 18,500-19,000 per 10 grams level from the current Rs 20,500 per 10 grams level.
India's merchandise exports spurted to a record high of $418 billion in the 2021-22 fiscal on higher shipments of petroleum products, engineering goods, gem and jewellery and chemicals, according to official data released on Sunday. Outbound shipments touched an all-time high of $40 billion in a month in March 2022, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal told reporters. Exports stood at $34 billion in March 2021.
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Despite various challenges, the past year was a good one, says Bruce Cleaver, chief executive officer of the De Beers Group, the global corporation that has been the leading one in all aspects of the diamond trade for over a century.
The auspicious day of Akshaya Tritiya has begun on a strong note as jewellers are witnessing good footfalls and being a public holiday on Tuesday, consumers are flocking to the stores early before the temperature soars. "Jewellers across the country have opened their stores early across the country and there is a strong momentum in footfalls since morning. "There has been positive sentiment in the market since the last 10-15 days and we expect it to continue on the day of Akshaya Tritiya.
At a time when the Indian exporting community is feeling the heat of rupee appreciation, gems and jewellery export that recorded a poor growth of 2.7 per cent in 2006-07 is witnessing a turnaround, said a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) analysis on the country's foreign trade.
Gold premiums in India, the world's biggest buyer of the metal, jumped sharply this week as the festive season began, driving up demand, and supply remained tight.
The free trade agreement (FTA) talks with India are no longer working towards a Diwali deadline though negotiations are progressing well, UK Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch has said as New Delhi expressed confidence on Friday of an "early date" for a mutually beneficial deal. "There are ongoing negotiations as we know on the FTA. There is interest on both sides to see if we can work towards a deal, an FTA, that is beneficial to both the countries at an early date," external affairs ministry spokesperson Arindam Bagchi told reporters in New Delhi. It came as External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar spoke to his UK counterpart, James Cleverly, and referenced the Roadmap 2030 bilateral agreement signed between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former UK PM Boris Johnson in May last year, with no specific reference to the FTA.
The diamantaire's counsel said there is a vigilance manual circular that the consortium can lodge only one FIR. Each consortium member cannot lodge separate FIRs, he said.
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